Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tukums · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tukums are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Grobiņa are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tukums hold a 5.4-point power-rating edge (38.0 v 32.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.7% in the Virsliga, while Tukums holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tukums
Probability
57.7%
Model confidence
57.7%
Tukums has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00