Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manresa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tudelano 2-1 Manresa
Original prediction
Manresa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.3% | 31.9% | -12.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.5% | 27.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 27.2% | 40.4% | 13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Manresa
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Manresa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TudelanoLDWLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ManresaWWDLW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
TudelanoManresa
16.7Attack100.0
50.0Defence83.3
16.7Form100.0
31.3Power94.8
0.99xG1.57