Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 10:06
TSV Steinbach

TSV Steinbach

Home
L
28
Full time
Sportfreunde Siegen

Sportfreunde Siegen

Away
W
GoalVio prediction
Friendly match
Very hard to predict

Friendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.

Sportfreunde Siegen33%
TSV Steinbach33%
Draw33%
Most likely exact score2-2
Win probability
TSV Steinbach
33%
Draw
33%
Sportfreunde Siegen
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
TSV Steinbach
9
Sportfreunde Siegen
94
Defence
TSV Steinbach
0
Sportfreunde Siegen
66
Momentum
TSV Steinbach
0
Sportfreunde Siegen
100
Danger (xG)
TSV Steinbach
0.00
Sportfreunde Siegen
2.70
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.46 xG for TSV Steinbach and 1.74 xG for Sportfreunde Siegen — meaningful and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.28), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 3.20 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.

xG for (TSV Steinbach)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Sportfreunde Siegen)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (TSV Steinbach)
4.50
avg per match
xG against (Sportfreunde Siegen)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
TSV SteinbachTSV Steinbach
LW
Sportfreunde SiegenSportfreunde Siegen
W

Probability breakdown

33% confidence
TSV Steinbach33%
Draw33%
Sportfreunde Siegen33%

Sportfreunde Siegen leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

TSV Steinbach vs Sportfreunde Siegen: Model Points to a Closely-Fought Draw

TSV Steinbach take on Sportfreunde Siegen in Friendlies Clubs.

Why GoalVio backs this

These sides have drawn 1 of their last 3 meetings. The historical pattern between these teams consistently produces tight, level results — a fixture tendency the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying numbers are also close.

Biggest risk: The draw projection is inherently fragile — a single moment of quality from either side could produce a winner. The model sees no clear favourite, which means the actual result is highly sensitive to in-game events and individual quality.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

TSV Steinbach

TSV Steinbach

L
@ FC Viktoria Köln
7 Jul 2026
05
W
vs Bahlinger SC
16 May 2026
42
Sportfreunde Siegen

Sportfreunde Siegen

W
vs SSVg Velbert
16 May 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win TSV Steinbach vs Sportfreunde Siegen?

GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 33% confidence.

What is the predicted score for TSV Steinbach vs Sportfreunde Siegen?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-2.

Will both teams score in TSV Steinbach vs Sportfreunde Siegen?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in TSV Steinbach vs Sportfreunde Siegen?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more