TSV Steinbachvs
FC 08 Homburg
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - SudWest · 9/26/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC 08 Homburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
TSV Steinbach 1-0 FC 08 Homburg
Original prediction
FC 08 Homburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.72 | 33.4% | 34.5% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.3% | 27.9% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 42.3% | 37.6% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
FC 08 Homburg
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
FC 08 Homburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20