TSV Hartbergvs
Ried
COMPLETEDAustria · Bundesliga · 8/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
TSV Hartberg · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
TSV Hartberg 3-2 Ried
Original prediction
TSV Hartberg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.05 | 30.7% | 36.7% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.4% | 27.8% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 41.9% | 35.5% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
TSV Hartberg
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
TSV Hartberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60