TSV Hartbergvs
Austria Lustenau
COMPLETEDAustria · Bundesliga · 10/11/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
TSV Hartberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
TSV Hartberg 4-3 Austria Lustenau
Original prediction
TSV Hartberg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 44.0% | 43.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.8% | 25.3% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 29.2% | 31.4% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
TSV Hartberg
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
TSV Hartberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 7 · avg 3.40/1.40
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20