Truro Cityvs
Merthyr Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Truro City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Truro City 2-0 Merthyr Town
Original prediction
Truro City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 50.4% | 42.2% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.0% | 26.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.65 | 24.7% | 31.2% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Truro City
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Truro City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80