Truro Cityvs
Chesham United
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - South · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Truro City · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Truro City 3-1 Chesham United
Original prediction
Truro City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.4% | 48.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 25.9% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.66 | 24.7% | 26.0% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Truro City
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Truro City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20