Truro Cityvs
Birmingham City U21
COMPLETEDEngland · National League Cup · 10/13/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Truro City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Truro City 3-0 Birmingham City U21
Original prediction
Truro City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 58.4% | 43.3% | -15.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 21.5% | 27.0% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 4.49 | 20.1% | 29.8% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Truro City
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Truro City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20