Trujillanos FCvs
Monagas SC
COMPLETEDVenezuela · Primera División · 8/30/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monagas SC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Trujillanos FC 3-1 Monagas SC
Original prediction
Monagas SC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 40.2% | 30.2% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.1% | 27.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.7% | 42.0% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–114%
Predicted outcome
Monagas SC
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Monagas SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 6 · avg 0.20/1.20
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20