Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Troszyn · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Troszyn are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (LW), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Bełchatów are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDDLW), averaging 2.60 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 7 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Troszyn hold a 4.8-point power-rating edge (59.5 v 54.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.5% in the III Liga - Group 1, while Troszyn holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Troszyn
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Troszyn has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 1.50/1.50
GF 13 · GA 13 · avg 2.60/2.60