EliteserienEliteserien
Saturday, 11 July 2026Last updated 12:33
Tromso

Tromso

Home
W
40
Full time
Valerenga

Valerenga

Away
WL
Romssa Arena
GoalVio prediction
62% confidence
Draw(24%)
Most likely exact score1-1
Prediction missed— Result: Tromso
Win probability
Tromso
62%
Draw
24%
Valerenga
14%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Tromso
99
Valerenga
94
Defence
Tromso
91
Valerenga
14
Momentum
Tromso
100
Valerenga
50
Danger (xG)
Tromso
1.39
Valerenga
3.09
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Tromso)
1.39
avg per match
xG for (Valerenga)
3.09
avg per match
xG against (Tromso)
0.78
avg per match
xG against (Valerenga)
1.15
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
TromsoTromso
WL
ValerengaValerenga
WLD

Probability breakdown

62% confidence
Tromso62%
Draw24%
Valerenga14%

Tromso leads with 62% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Tromso head into this in Eliteserien fixture at Romssa Arena in mixed form (W), while Valerenga arrive in mixed form (WL). Tromso have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 50% for Valerenga over 2 games.

Both teams carry genuine attacking threat — Tromso (99/100) and Valerenga (94/100) are both rated highly going forward. The model anticipates an open, goal-heavy contest.

Tromso have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Valerenga have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded per away game.

Tromso have generated 1.39 xG per game recently while conceding 0.78 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Valerenga have generated 0.78 xG per game recently while conceding 1.39 xG per match, underperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

Tromso have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 4.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects a draw with 62% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-1. Win probabilities: Tromso 6236%, Draw 2405%, Valerenga 1359%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Tromso 1Draws 00 Valerenga
Avg goals: 4.0
11 Jul 2026
Tromso
W40
Valerenga
xG 1.40.8

Recent form

Tromso

Tromso

W
vs Valerenga
11 Jul 2026
40
xG 1.4
L
@ Bodo/Glimt
16 May 2026
05
Valerenga

Valerenga

W
vs Aalesund
16 Jul 2026
61
L
@ Tromso
11 Jul 2026
04
xG 0.8
D
vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
16 May 2026
22

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Tromso vs Valerenga?

GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 62% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Tromso vs Valerenga?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-1.

Will both teams score in Tromso vs Valerenga?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Tromso vs Valerenga?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more