Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tromso · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tromso are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Brighton are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Tromso hold a 41.8-point power-rating edge (91.8 v 50.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.3% in the UEFA Europa Conference League, while Tromso holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tromso
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
11.3%
Tromso has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40