Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Trofense 1-4 Leça
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 32.4% | 36.0% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.5% | 30.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 38.2% | 33.2% | -5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.1–014%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.8%
Model confidence
36.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TrofenseDWLLD
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
LeçaLWLDD
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TrofenseLeça
40.5Attack50.0
63.1Defence50.0
46.4Form50.0
51.9Power50.0
1.13xG0.88