Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Trnje · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Trnje 2-2 Zagora
Original prediction
Trnje
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 09:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.1% | 51.3% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.1% | 21.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 27.8% | 27.4% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.60 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Trnje
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Trnje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TrnjeLWLLD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ZagoraDLWWD
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TrnjeZagora
50.0Attack79.2
62.5Defence25.0
54.2Form41.7
56.2Power47.8
2.32xG1.57