Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Uljanik · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Trnje 2-0 Uljanik
Original prediction
Uljanik
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 39.4% | 35.1% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.3% | 28.9% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.3% | 36.0% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Uljanik
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Uljanik has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TrnjeLLDWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UljanikDLDWW
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
TrnjeUljanik
33.3Attack50.0
45.6Defence0.0
36.7Form16.7
40.2Power24.2
1.26xG1.41