Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Türkiye · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Türkiye 1-4 Italy
Original prediction
Türkiye
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 35.8% | 38.8% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.5% | 28.6% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 37.7% | 32.6% | -5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Türkiye
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Türkiye has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TürkiyeLWWLW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ItalyLWWDL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TürkiyeItaly
0.0Attack0.0
66.7Defence33.3
0.0Form0.0
23.7Power15.3
1.32xG1.01