Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
France · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Türkiye 0-1 France
Original prediction
France
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.25 | 11.5% | 37.5% | 26.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.64 | 16.8% | 23.2% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 1.32 | 71.7% | 39.3% | -32.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-32.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
France
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
France has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TürkiyeWWLWW
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
FranceWLWWW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
TürkiyeFrance
62.5Attack66.7
70.8Defence56.7
70.8Form63.3
68.7Power62.7
1.69xG1.18