Tripoli SCvs
Al Ahed
COMPLETEDLebanon · Premier League · 10/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ahed · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tripoli SC 1-1 Al Ahed
Original prediction
Al Ahed
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.85 | 23.2% | 33.8% | 10.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.7% | 29.2% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.78 | 50.1% | 37.0% | -13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.35 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Al Ahed
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Al Ahed has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80