Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morrinhos · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Trindade 2-2 Morrinhos
Original prediction
Morrinhos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.23 | 28.0% | 20.4% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.4% | 24.4% | -5.0 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 42.6% | 55.2% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.08 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Morrinhos
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
Morrinhos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TrindadeLDDLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MorrinhosWWLDW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TrindadeMorrinhos
28.6Attack57.1
38.1Defence61.9
14.3Form61.9
30.2Power62.2
0.76xG1.81