Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morrinhos · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Trindade are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Morrinhos are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Morrinhos hold a 36.7-point power-rating edge (23.6 v 60.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.8% in the Goiano - 2, while Morrinhos holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Morrinhos
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
12.8%
Morrinhos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00