Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triglav · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Triglav 1-1 Primorje
Original prediction
Triglav
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 69.1% | 50.5% | -18.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.82 | 18.5% | 25.7% | 7.1 pts |
| Away | 7.23 | 12.4% | 23.8% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.82 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Triglav
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Triglav has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TriglavWWLWW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
PrimorjeLLDWL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TriglavPrimorje
100.0Attack33.3
100.0Defence33.3
100.0Form0.0
97.0Power23.7
2.00xG1.04