Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triglav · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (13%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Triglav 4-0 Jesenice
Original prediction
Triglav
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 56.5% | 54.3% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.0% | 23.8% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 4.18 | 21.4% | 21.9% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–013%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
Triglav
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
Triglav has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TriglavDWWLW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
JeseniceWWWLW
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TriglavJesenice
100.0Attack28.9
100.0Defence24.4
100.0Form20.0
97.0Power27.0
2.97xG0.64