Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triglav · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Triglav 1-0 Dekani, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Triglav 1-0 Dekani
Original prediction
Triglav
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 71.7% | 53.2% | -18.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.98 | 18.0% | 27.3% | 9.3 pts |
| Away | 8.62 | 10.4% | 19.6% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.5 pts
Projected Score
Triglav 1–0 Dekani
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Triglav
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Triglav has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TriglavWWDWW
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
DekaniWLWWD
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
TriglavDekani
70.4Attack23.3
81.5Defence80.0
70.4Form50.0
72.0Power52.9
1.25xG0.41