Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triglav · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (12%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Triglav 4-0 Brežice
Original prediction
Triglav
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 70.2% | 62.9% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.03 | 17.8% | 20.4% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 7.44 | 12.0% | 16.7% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Triglav
Probability
62.9%
Model confidence
62.9%
Triglav has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TriglavLWWLW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BrežiceLDLLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TriglavBrežice
80.0Attack33.3
68.9Defence33.3
71.1Form0.0
70.6Power23.7
2.99xG0.71