Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triestina · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Triestina are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Pro Sesto are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Triestina hold a 16.7-point power-rating edge (58.1 v 41.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.0% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Triestina holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Triestina
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
Triestina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40