Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Triestina are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Padova are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Padova hold a 6.7-point power-rating edge (58.1 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.7% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20