Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triestina · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Triestina are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Novara are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Triestina hold a 12.7-point power-rating edge (58.1 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.6% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Triestina holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Triestina
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Triestina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00