Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triestina · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Triestina are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Novara are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Triestina hold a 12.7-point power-rating edge (58.1 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.6% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Triestina holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Triestina
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Triestina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00