Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triestina · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Triestina 1-0 Mestre, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Triestina 0-2 Mestre
Original prediction
Triestina
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.1% | 41.0% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.0% | 29.7% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.70 | 32.9% | 29.3% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Projected Score
Triestina 1–0 Mestre
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Triestina
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Triestina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TriestinaWLWLD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MestreLLLDD
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
TriestinaMestre
66.7Attack50.0
100.0Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
88.7Power50.0
1.29xG0.78