Triestinavs
FC Obermais
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie D - Girone C · 10/4/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triestina · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Triestina 2-0 FC Obermais
Original prediction
Triestina
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 53.7% | 42.1% | -11.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.3% | 27.9% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 21.0% | 30.0% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Triestina
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Triestina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00