Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triestina · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Triestina are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Alcione are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Triestina hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (58.1 v 47.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.2% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Triestina holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Triestina
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Triestina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00