Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triestina · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Triestina are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Alcione are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Triestina hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (58.1 v 47.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.2% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Triestina holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Triestina
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Triestina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80