Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treze · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Treze are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Retrô are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Treze hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (57.6 v 46.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.4% in the Serie D, while Treze holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Treze
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
12.4%
Treze has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20