Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treze · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Treze are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lagarto are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Treze hold an 11.2-point power-rating edge (57.6 v 46.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.9% in the Serie D, while Treze holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Treze
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
Treze has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40