Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treze · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Treze are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Decisão are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Treze hold a 20.2-point power-rating edge (57.6 v 37.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.0% in the Serie D, while Treze holds the strongest overall chance at 67% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Treze
Probability
67.4%
Model confidence
14.0%
Treze has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60