Trevisovs
Desenzano Calvina
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/21/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treviso · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Treviso 0-0 Desenzano Calvina
Original prediction
Treviso
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.0% | 43.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.95 | 30.7% | 29.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.71 | 24.3% | 26.7% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.95 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Treviso
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Treviso has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00