Trethomas Bluebirdsvs
Cardiff Draconians
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/23/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Trethomas Bluebirds · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Trethomas Bluebirds 3-1 Cardiff Draconians
Original prediction
Trethomas Bluebirds
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.1% | 48.7% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 23.8% | 22.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 36.1% | 28.7% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–17%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Trethomas Bluebirds
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
48.7%
Trethomas Bluebirds has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60