Trethomas Bluebirdsvs
Afan Lido
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Afan Lido · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Trethomas Bluebirds 5-2 Afan Lido
Original prediction
Afan Lido
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.4% | 35.8% | -9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.3% | 24.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.3% | 40.2% | 9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Afan Lido
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Afan Lido has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00