Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Trento are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Novara are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Trento hold a 3.7-point power-rating edge (49.2 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60