Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Trento are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Novara are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Trento hold a 3.7-point power-rating edge (49.2 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60