Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Trento · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Trento 1-0 Lecco
Original prediction
Trento
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 47.6% | 41.7% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.0% | 30.0% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.85 | 23.4% | 28.3% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–014%
Predicted outcome
Trento
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Trento has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TrentoLDWWL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LeccoLDDLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
TrentoLecco
0.0Attack0.0
100.0Defence66.7
33.3Form0.0
45.3Power23.7
1.18xG0.86