Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treibach · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Treibach 1-0 Bleiburg
Original prediction
Treibach
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.6% | 54.3% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 21.8% | 24.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 5.13 | 17.6% | 21.7% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Treibach
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
Treibach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TreibachLWLWL
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
BleiburgLDWLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
TreibachBleiburg
60.0Attack50.0
63.3Defence40.0
56.7Form30.0
59.1Power41.8
2.48xG0.96