Trefelinvs
The New Saints
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/26/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
The New Saints · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Trefelin 0-4 The New Saints, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Trefelin 1-3 The New Saints
Original prediction
The New Saints
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 29.71 | 3.1% | 6.5% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 13.18 | 7.0% | 9.4% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.03 | 89.8% | 84.2% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Projected Score
Trefelin 0–4 The New Saints
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
The New Saints
Probability
84.2%
Model confidence
84.2%
The New Saints has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60