Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penybont · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-3 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Trefelin 0-1 Penybont
Original prediction
Penybont
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.70 | 13.5% | 15.2% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.68 | 19.4% | 20.2% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.35 | 67.0% | 64.5% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Penybont
Probability
64.5%
Model confidence
64.5%
Penybont has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TrefelinDLDLL
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PenybontWDDWW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TrefelinPenybont
14.3Attack52.4
14.3Defence76.2
9.5Form71.4
16.9Power68.7
0.66xG2.39