Trefelinvs
Ammanford AFC
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Trefelin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Trefelin 1-1 Ammanford AFC
Original prediction
Trefelin
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.4% | 39.4% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.6% | 26.1% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 25.0% | 34.5% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.53 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Trefelin
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Trefelin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 22 · avg 0.00/4.40
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80