Treaty Unitedvs
UCD
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 10/2/2026, 7:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UCD · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Treaty United 0-4 UCD
Original prediction
UCD
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 31.7% | 30.2% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.7% | 28.3% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.6% | 41.5% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
UCD
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
UCD has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Treaty UnitedWLWLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UCDLLDDW
GF 10 · GA 15 · avg 2.00/3.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Treaty UnitedUCD
33.3Attack57.6
51.5Defence51.5
36.4Form49.5
42.6Power52.7
1.01xG1.58