First DivisionFirst Division
Friday, 3 July 2026Last updated 10:06
Treaty United

Treaty United

Home
L
21
Full time
Kerry

Kerry

Away
D
Markets Field
GoalVio prediction
45% confidence
Kerry(45%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Prediction missed— Result: Treaty United
Win probability
Treaty United
26%
Draw
29%
Kerry
45%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Treaty United
34
Kerry
73
Defence
Treaty United
27
Kerry
27
Momentum
Treaty United
0
Kerry
33
Danger (xG)
Treaty United
0.90
Kerry
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Treaty United)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Kerry)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Treaty United)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Kerry)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Treaty UnitedTreaty United
LWWDW
KerryKerry
DDLWW

Probability breakdown

45% confidence
Treaty United26%
Draw29%
Kerry45%

Kerry leads with 45% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Treaty United head into this in First Division fixture at Markets Field in mixed form (L), while Kerry arrive in mixed form (D). Treaty United have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Kerry over 1 games.

The model rates Treaty United's attack at 34/100 against a 27/100 Kerry defence, and Kerry's attack at 73/100 against a 27/100 Treaty United backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Treaty United have won 2 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game at home. Kerry have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.

Treaty United have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 3.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Kerry to win with 45% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Treaty United 2600%, Draw 2910%, Kerry 4490%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Treaty United 1Draws 00 Kerry
Avg goals: 3.0BTTS in 1/1
3 Jul 2026
Treaty United
W21
Kerry

Recent form

Treaty United

Treaty United

L
vs UCD
17 Jul 2026
12
W
@ Finn Harps
10 Jul 2026
10
W
vs Kerry
3 Jul 2026
21
D
@ Wexford
26 Jun 2026
00
W
vs Finn Harps
15 May 2026
30
Kerry

Kerry

D
vs Shelbourne
17 Jul 2026
22
D
@ Wexford
10 Jul 2026
22
L
@ Treaty United
3 Jul 2026
12
W
vs Longford Town
26 Jun 2026
21
W
vs Wexford
15 May 2026
21

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Treaty United vs Kerry?

GoalVio's model predicts Kerry to win with 45% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Treaty United vs Kerry?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Treaty United vs Kerry?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Treaty United vs Kerry?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more