Treaty Unitedvs
Finn Harps
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 9/25/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treaty United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Treaty United 2-1 Finn Harps
Original prediction
Treaty United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 55.5% | 54.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.3% | 25.1% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.47 | 20.2% | 20.8% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Treaty United
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
Treaty United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20