Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Penne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tre Penne 0-0 Tre Fiori
Original prediction
Tre Penne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 40.6% | 42.9% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.6% | 26.1% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 29.8% | 31.0% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Tre Penne
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Tre Penne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Tre PenneWWWWW
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Tre FioriWLWWW
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Tre PenneTre Fiori
73.3Attack100.0
86.7Defence66.7
100.0Form80.0
89.2Power80.1
1.70xG1.33