Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Penne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tre Penne 2-0 Cosmos
Original prediction
Tre Penne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 61.4% | 48.5% | -13.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.7% | 26.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 6.16 | 14.9% | 25.6% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Tre Penne
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Tre Penne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Tre PenneWWLDD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CosmosDDDWW
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Tre PenneCosmos
100.0Attack33.3
33.3Defence66.7
100.0Form33.3
80.3Power45.3
1.88xG1.25